2018 Mid-Term Election Poll

Our 2018 Mid-Term Competitive Districts Poll

2017 Virginia

Pre-Election Poll

On August 7, 2018 we released the findings of our poll (completed July 5-14) of voters in the 61 most competitive House districts done for the NAACP.  The size of the poll allowed for comparisons across ethnic and racial groups with low margins of error both for the overall sample and for each racial/ethnic group sub-sample.  You may view a slide deck on the poll findings by clicking here.  

Background on Poll Methodology:

2,045 registered voters were interviewed in the 61 congressional districts deemed most competitive by Cook, CNN and Crystal Ball, and the overall poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.1%. A minimum of 400 registered voters were interviewed from each racial and ethnic group: Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans or Pacific Islanders, Native Americans, and white non-Hispanics, which each carry a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. Due to sample size considerations, Native Americans were drawn from a 50-state national sample, while the other four groups were drawn only from the 61 competitive districts. The overall data are weighted to the most recent Census estimates for the registered voter population for age, gender, education, and nativity, and then weighted proportionately to match the overall racial demographics of the combined 61 districts which is 68% white, 15% black, 12% Latino, 4% Asian, 1% Native American. Respondents were randomly selected for interviews through online panels, and verified to be registered to vote, and to live in one of the 61 competitive house districts, in order to participate in the survey. The survey was in the field July 5-July 14, 2018.

2017 Virginia

Pre-Election Poll

Our 2017 Virginia Pre-Election Voter Poll

On November 16, 2016 we released the findings of our poll (completed November 2 to 6) of African American voters and published those here.  The poll was of 403 African American registered voters in Virginia.  It was done concurrent with polling by our partners Latino Decisions which polled Latinos (431), Whites (497), and Asian Americans (404).  This allowed for comparisons across ethnic and racial groups.  The combined polling accurately predicted the final outcome of the race, a 9 point victory for Northam.  The consensus (based on averaging across different polls was that Northam would win by 3 points).

Background on Poll Methodology:

Sample was drawn statewide from the Catalist VA voter file, screened to people with 2013 vote history (about 80% of our sample), or new registrants who said they were certain to vote (about 20% of our sample). Initial sample included people of all race/ethnicity, randomly drawn to their cell phones and landlines.  Full sample includes whites, Blacks, Latinos, Asians.  Here we are primarily reporting out results of the African American sample.

The poll was 50% cell phones and 50% land lines.

Data were weighted to match the 2013 voter demographics in Virginia by region, age, gender, education within each racial/ethnic category.

The African American Research Collaborative worked with Latino Decisions to complete this poll.

2016 Voter Poll

Our 2016 African American Voter Poll

On November 4th we released the findings of our poll of African American voters and published those here.  The poll is of 1200 African American registered voters across the country with oversamples in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada.  You may view a slide deck on the poll by clicking here.

Background on Poll Methodology:

The poll consists of 1200 completed surveys. The national segment of the survey contains a sample size of 300 completed surveys, with additional state-specific segments with 900 completes (300 completed surveys in each of NV, PA, and GA). For this survey, we interviewed African American registered likely voters, and the average length of these interviews was approximately 22 minutes. Half (50%) of completed surveys were obtained via phone (contacting both land lines and cell phones), and 50% were obtained via the web. For the web portion of the survey, participants were  randomly selected from voter file records with email addresses (“RRW”) and invited to participate in the study with prior voting history appended to respondents.  The web and cell phone elements of the survey, as well as incorporating new registrants, are meant in part to help ensure sufficient numbers of millennial voters.

The African American Research Collaborative worked with Latino Decisions to complete this poll.